China Apprentice

I’m excited to take part in this year’s Lingnan Sun Yat-sen INDUSTRAT competition. Though the course may be an elective and I’ve already taken the required number of MBA elective courses (actually well over the required three), I was compelled to sign up. I’m interested to see what a “capstone” course for an MBA could be all about. I’m also a little scared to think that this intense four-day simulation could test all the things we’ve learned in this MBA over the past year and a half. A guest professor in from Hong Kong coupled with a famous simulation program developed by the great minds at one of the world’s best business schools, INSEAD, makes me more than a little curious about the 2007 Business Strategy Simulation.

I remember it was a mad rush to register for the class when it came available. A new online registration system at Lingnan like any new online system, didn’t work when it was supposed to let us sign up for the course. With suspense building, when the course finally was released to the Lingnan masses, it was a swift dash to find an open cable port for the student’s laptops and log in to the system. I slipped in the course just two people from the course limit.

And I’m glad I made it. It was enough to pique my interest when I first received the preparatory course materials for this course – 孙子兵法 or The Art of War by Sun Tzu (full text translation). A longtime enthusiast of Chinese philosophical thought, I was delighted to learn this strategy course wouldn’t be all about western ideas but would focus on possible the father of all strategic thought, Sun Tzu.

I’ve advocated before that I think Lingnan should focus more on some of the decidedly Chinese contributions to management theory and practice. The emphasis these days in MBA programs is so much focused on the ideas of a bunch of gray-haired white guys. The world is waking up slowly to the fact that China has a lot more to offer to the greater education community. This course is just one example.

The professor, 赵越 Oliver Yue, got me interested the minute he walked in the room and started to introduce himself. I was particularly inspired by what he claims is a theme in his life stemming from the repetition of a particular Chinese radical in his name, 走 which means to go or walk or otherwise indicate movement. Whether inherited from birth or motivated by the aspirations of his parents, Dr. Yue, makes a point to live his life reflecting a common Chinese proverb, 读万卷书，行万里路 or read 10,000 books, travel 10,000 miles. I don’t know about the books (though a PhD probably gets close), but he’s certainly made his round of travels. He’s been to all seven continents and snapped some fantastic photos along the way. Now, a man who lives by such mantra, enjoys the art of photography AND studies the application of ancient Chinese philosophy to modern business is a man of interest in my book.

In fact, not only do a frequently quote the same Chinese proverb and take gazillions of travel photos, but it was just yesterday that I gave a very similar final presentation in my Strategic Management class on the management interpretation of The Art of War. I was surprised to learn that the Dr. Yue’s lesson preparing us for the first day of simulation drew some very familiar connections in strategy with Sun Tzu.

In many ways I agree that a war’s battlefield can be much like the business environment （孙子管理思想？）. Perhaps Sun Tzu’s most famous line 知彼知已者，百战不殆 epitomizes the importance of having valuable information both about your own company and your competitors (to include customers, users, key actors, suppliers, etc.). To evaluate yourself, your enemy and the environment, Sun Tzu tells us凡此五者，将莫不闻，知之者胜，不知者不胜.

There is no general who has not heard of these five factors. Yet it is he who masters them that wins and he who does not that loses. When assessing the outcome of a war, compare the two sides in terms of these factors and appraise the situation accordingly.

The five factors he refers to are now often quoted in business strategy texts. 故经之以五事，校之以计而索其情：一曰道 – The Way, 二曰天 – Heaven, 三曰地 – Earth, 四曰将 – Command, and 五曰法 – Doctrine.

Modern theorists (relatively modern that is compared to 300 BC) have developed strategy frameworks that conveniently match some of The Art of War’s basic ideas. 天者，阴阳，寒暑，时制也. Dr. Yue highlights the relationship between Master Sun’s factor of “heaven” and David Baron’s market and non-market environment summarized in the acronym PEST – political, economic, social, technological not to mention the public and the media. Not only do these aspects affect the “business climate” represented by the heaven factor but we can also consider Michael Porter’s 5 Forces - Suppliers, Buyers, New entrants, Substitute Products, and Competition.

Modern theory coincides even more with Sun Tzu’s famous work. Henry Mintzberg’s Five P’s, Perspective, Position, Ploy, Pattern, and Plan match almost perfectly with Sun’s 5 factors, respectively. 道者，令民与上同意也。故可以与之死，可以之生，而不畏危. The Way can be compared to modern corporations’ core competencies and social responsibility. 地者，远近，险易，广狭，死生也. The idea of Earth representing distance, terrain, land, and place can be related to the company through internal analysis of resources, labor, capital, transportation, etc. Jay Barney uses such a resourced-based view to evaluate a firm’s financial, physical, human, and organizational capital thereby helping companies capitalize on resources with value, rarity, imitability, and organization. 将者，智，信，仁，勇，严也. Command, on the other hand, is the ability of the company leadership to implement strategy using the five characteristics of a general that also apply to any organization’s leaders:

Wisdom – recognize changing circumstances, active involvement in planning process
Sincerity – towards employees for soliciting their feedback and input
Benevolence – incentive system
Courage – no hesitation to make decisions which capitalize on an opportunity
Strictness – discipline for self and others

法者，曲制，官道，主用也. The last of the five factors, doctrine, is modifying the structure of the organization to facilitate strategy. This must happen at all levels of the organization: corporate, business, and functional. Though Sun likely didn’t have common business-level strategies in mind when he penned his words, concepts of specialization, diversification, integration, outsourcing, and strategic alliance are found in cryptic form throughout the text. Gary Hamel’s idea of Business Concept Innovation (BCI) is but one way to create a unique strategy that creates competitive advantage over competitors.

Sun Tzu tells Generals to evaluate the competition with the five factors by asking a series of questions. These questions can be directly related to key business strategy concepts:

Vision/Core competencies - Which sovereign possesses more moral influence?
Leadership - Which general is more capable?
Market/Resources - Which side has the advantages of heaven and earth?
Organization/Structure - Which army is better disciplined?
Competitive advantage/training - Whose troops are better armed and trained?
Incentives/Vision - Which command is more impartial to meting out rewards and punishments?

Even though we may evaluate our company today based on these questions and factors and then create an ideal strategy, tomorrow the environment could change. 夫兵形象水. 水因地而制流，兵因故变化而取胜. As the water changes its course in accordance with the contours of the terrain, so a warrior changes his tactics in accordance with the enemy’s changing situation. A business must have similar flexibility to realize strategy is fluid and ever-changing.

It’s amazing a text from over 2000 years ago still holds such significance in world affairs. The interpretations and applications of this little book are very practical for any business, small, medium, or large. I look forward to analyzing this simulation more and finding inspiration in this ancient wisdom.

An analysis of the space tourism industry using Porter’s Five-Forces Model
A relatively new industry called Space Tourism is proving that motivated private investors paired with creative and talented engineers may now be able to accomplish what only governments were previously capable of. In 1961, supported by massive government funding, research, testing and operations, the USSR successfully launched the first human, 27 year-old Yuri Gagarin, into space on the Vostok-1 spacecraft. The world watched as this previously earth-bound human ventured into a truly heavenly place where no man had gone before. This journey caught the adventurous spirit of billions back on the planet. Now almost 50 years later, people are yearning for their own space experience. Private corporations are making this possible through what they hope will eventually be a profitable industry in Space Tourism.

Stephen Hawking, the famous physicist known for his work in space-time theory, has warned that,

Life on Earth is at the ever-increasing risk of being wiped out by a disaster such as sudden global warming, nuclear war, a genetically engineered virus or other dangers … I think the human race has no future if it doesn’t go into space.

Several entrepreneurs with seemingly bottomless pockets and unwavering determination seem to have heeded Dr. Hawking’s cautioning, and are now working with fervor to make a bit of money off what promises to be an eventual mass migration into the cosmos.

Wealthy multi-billionaires are financing what is now turning out to be a new commercial space race. First governments were in on the act. In 2001, the Russian Federal Space Agency sent the first private citizen space tourist, Dennis Tito, up for a ride in the Soyuz craft with a stop at the International Space Station all for the modest price of $20 million. Then in 2004, backed by Microsoft’s co-founder, Paul Allen, and led by aerospace guru, Burt Rutan, Scaled Composites launched and landed the first private privately-funded manned space flight subsequently winning the $10 million Ansari X Prize.

That was just the beginning. Since the inaugural Scaled Composites SpaceShipOne flight, the company has been acquired by Northrop Grumman and is now in cooperation with eccentric British millionaire Richard Branson and his company Virgin Galactic. Virgin has reportedly attracted up to 200 clients who are each paying $200,000 for a short weightless ride in SpaceShipTwo, Mr. Rutan’s new 6-seat spacecraft. The Washington Post reports that “Virgin Group expects to invest a total of $240 million by 2013” in the company’s bet on space tourism.

Space tourism market still suborbital

Allen, Branson, and Rutan are by far the most visible in the still very “virgin” space tourism industry. There are a handful of other wealthy entrepreneurs that are all vying for their piece of the potential market. Among them, Amazon.com founder, Jeff Bezos, with Blue Origin, Jim Benson’s Space Company, as well as other companies like Space Adventures, Space Island Group, and Bigelow Aerospace. Traditional government-funded efforts still haven’t folded their cards yet either. Boeing and Lockheed recently signed a monopolistic “United Launch Alliance” to supposedly cut costs in the rocket booster industry. NASA created Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) agreements with several companies to spur private sector R&D. The Russian Federal Space Agency is still sending tourists into space like the first privately-funded Iranian-born Ms. Anousheh Ansari. Also, the European aerospace agency, EADS Astrium, “unveiled plans this summer to develop its own four-seat space plane, with tickets to sell for around $150,000.”

What investors and potential market entrants are now predicting is a rapid market “explosion” in space tourism. Although skeptics say these companies “will merely provide rich people with a good view of the atmosphere that their carbon-hungry trip has just helped to destroy - the ultimate 4×4 experience”, others are betting on a larger, more mainstream tourism market.

In the years 1908 to 1912 the world went from a grand total of just ten airplane pilots to hundreds of airplane types and thousands of pilots in 39 countries. It is hoped that the X-Prize [is providing] a similar jumpstart to the space travel industry.

The difference is that instead of leaving the development of this new industry to slow, risk-averse government organizations, risk-taking private investors are providing the much-needed venture capital and corporate vision. The cumulative investment of $1 trillion that has been made by governments in space technology development has yet to earn a commercial return. NASA currently spends $100 million or more per space launch and many of those don’t even carry humans. Perhaps the forward-looking business strategic environment that focuses on cutting costs and turning profits is what could bring a sense of purpose to the often criticized over-budget NASA.

What’s different today is we have more millionaires and billionaires than ever before, and we have the analytical tools, computational tools, where a single individual can finance it, and a team of 20 can design and build a spaceship that used to take a major first-world nation to support.

Taikotourists

The market worldwide is certainly growing. As people see the prices come down from the millions to the hundreds of thousands to the tens of thousands, the demand will continue to outpace the supply. According to research by Patrick Collins presented at the 1997 IEEE Aerospace conference, “some 80% of young people up to the age of 40 would like to [travel to space], and even some 30% of people in their 60s and 70s say they would like to … a majority of those in favor say they would pay 3 months’ salary; about 1/4 say that they would pay 6 months’ salary, and some 10% say that they would pay 1 year’s salary or more.” Those statistics reflect a welcome climate for potential investors. The European Tourism Research Center says that “perhaps most exciting speculations about future travel involve the idea of space travel becoming commercially available to the public.” Futron, a market research firm, predicts that “as many as 14,000 space tourists will be heading into space each year by 2021, generating annual revenue of more than $700 million” says the International Herald Tribune. Demand is expected to grow to more than 1 million passengers/year if the cost can be reduced to around $20,000 per person.

And if there’s a significant market, we can be assured that the world’s most populous nation will be interested in the business. Merrill Lynch reports there are over 300,000 millionaires in China. In fact, Hong Kong businessman, Jiang Feng is reported to be paying $100,000 to take a suborbital flight. Just recently, an undisclosed entrepreneur in Zhejiang province became the first mainland Chinese to sign up for a seat onboard Mr. Branson’s ship. Chinese technology and companies may also even be players in the space tourism market before long. According to Wired News magazine, “Space Adventures will consider the Chinese Shenzhou vehicle once it has proven its reliability.” Realizing the potential for domestic interest in space flight, NASA administrator, Michael Griffin, predicts “China will be back on the Moon before [the U.S.]” (more…)

对中国世界的人有什么意见？看这里。

Pew Research Center in Washington just released a “47-Nation Pew Global Attitudes Survey” titled “GLOBAL UNEASE WITH MAJOR WORLD POWERS. Below are some excerpts from the survey summary that relate to China. The full 129-page report can be found here.

A 47-nation survey finds global public opinion increasingly wary of the world’s dominant nations and disapproving of their leaders. Anti-Americanism is extensive, as it has been for the past five years. At the same time, the image of China has slipped significantly among the publics of other major nations. (more…)

The U.S. Congress requires the Department of Defense to make a report every year on “the current and future military strategy of the People’s Republic of China. The report shall address the current and probable future course of military-technological development on the People’s Liberation Army and the tenets and probable development of Chinese grand strategy, security strategy, and military strategy, and of the military organizations and operational concepts, through the next 20 years.”

The report was released today, and here is the Department of Defense’s assessment of China for 2007:

“China’s rapid rise as a regional political and economic power with global aspirations is an important element of today’s strategic environment – one that has significant implications for the region and the world. The United States welcomes the rise of a peaceful and prosperous China, and it encourages China to participate as
a responsible international stakeholder by taking on a greater share of responsibility for the health and success of the global system. However, much uncertainty surrounds the future course China’s leaders will set for their country, including in the area of China’s expanding military power and how that power might be used.”

That’s the first paragraph of the Executive Summary of the DOD’s “Annual Report to Congress — Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2007″.

The remainder of the Executive Summary reads:
(more…)